A sense of urgency with the prospect of a War is prevailing now in the Korean Peninsula on the one hand, and between nations which are under imminent threat from what the consequences of failing to take firm and immediate action could be on the other. This is also a critical moment when ‘world leadership’ shall display a better understanding of why stringent actions like ‘economic sanctions’; cutting off supplies to North Korea by China, Russia, and other nations; plus such other actions as financial, economic, and even social starving could not quickly send a final and extreme signal of warning to North Korea. US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley’s words the day before even while sounding harsh should be perceived as the least that somebody uptil now striving for peace in the Peninsula and the world can utter under the testing times.
North Korea has undertaken nuclear tests six or more times since September with the latest early this week (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test which must have added its capability further) provoking the reemergence of the tone and tenor of the warnings even while creating some substantive strategic stress among the military personnel to be combat ready (specially those from U.S.A. ; South Korea; and Japan ) which helps to accelerate the engagement, alignment, and conformity of all nations to be united against North Korea.
Leaders of the nations against North Korea need also reveal to the world that they are well connected with each other on this issue with no worries of any fear of condemnation domestically and internationally. Peace strategies through ‘minds’ seem to have been rejected by the North Korean Leader who grows obstinate by the hour. This has now turned into a situation where the ‘hearts’ of leaders need to take precedence over their minds. Present situation does not lend itself to the abilities of nations at this juncture (they are well known to the world now) should a War break out, but more to finalising whether this provides the right ‘opportunity’ to prove what is right. “Nuclear proliferation is against the good of Humanity”. The risks involved should not be allowed to scare the highly threatened from taking strong and justifiable action shedding any fear of dismissal or rejection by even a single nation, from any corner of the world.
I have tried to determine the probability of a War breaking out in the Korean Peninsula :
The figure above indicates that the chance of a War between U.S.A. and DPRK in September was 0. 145. Various elements contributing to the final probability can be seen from the figure. (Also refer to my earlier pieces : 1. “Making Kim Jong Un a Nobody to Everybody” – September 19, 2017; and 2. ” Destroy the Country, (and/or) Restore the Country ?” – September 22, 2017. )
The figure above indicates the probability of a War between U.S.A. and DPRK now as 0. 475, an increase of about 0. 330 clearly, more than statistically significant. The situation is highly complex as any sign of mellowing is not clearly evident in the Korean Leader’s attitude, and the emotional declamations coupled with unrestrained testing of Ballistic missiles with extreme rhetoric is not diminishing.
(a) No leader can claim to have all the answers to this monumental puzzle – “whether a War with North Korea is the right move ?” – ; and (b) no leader can claim himself or herself to be upto what actions will be the most appropriate?; and in fact (c) no leader at this stage can even clearly say where they are moving even as they communicate with each other normally. It is the nature of unpredictability of the aggressor’s (DPRK) disposition on the one hand, and the seemingly apparent consensus among the nations opposed to the aggressor on the other that will decide the event.
Whether any corrective measures of resolution can emerge as a miracle at this juncture in defusing the situation will be the hope of every discerning citizen of this world, but the threat from and by North Korea to the world is for real.
” Dieu avec nous “
Thursday, November 30, 2017 – 9. 59 p.m (IST)
Tidbit :. ” The two most powerful warriors are patience and time ” – Leo Tolstoy.